Figure 4. Skill of computer model intensity forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2022, compared to a “no skill” model called “Decay-SHIFOR5” that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane intensity forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to maintain its current behavior). forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2022, compared to a “no skill” model called CLIPER5 that uses only climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence assumes that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction and at the same speed that it is currently going). Below are the model configurations shown in this figure; there is a list of model acronym spellouts higher up in this article. Individual model runs are shown in solid lines, with ensemble runs in dashed lines. See also the NHC Track and Intensity Models page.OFCL = official NHC forecastHWFI = HWRFHMNI = HWRFCTCI = COAMPSDSHP = Decay-Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction SchemeLGEM = Logistic Growth Equation ModelIVCN = Intensity Variable ConsensusHCCA = HFIP Corrected Consensus ApproachGFSI = GFSNNIC = Average of at least two of HWFI, GFSI, DSHP, and LGEM(Image credit: 2022 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report).